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# John Adams

Risk in a Hypermobile World

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## Posts

- [Fighting Traffic: the next battle](https://john-adams.co.uk/2017/05/13/fighting-traffic-the-next-battle/) - Amazon Review Fighting Traffic: The Dawn of the Motor Age in the American City, by Peter D Norton 5 out of 5 stars By J. Adams, 9 May 2017 Format: Paperback Verified Purchase Fighting traffic is an instructive account of the social reconstruction of American cities that led to their domination by motordom the
- [Driverless Cars and the Trolley Problem](https://john-adams.co.uk/2017/05/18/driverless-cars-and-the-trolley-problem/) - The Trolley Problem is a long pondered ethical thought experiment; it is an intellectual exercise devised to highlight the moral conflicts that can arise in the making of decisions involving inescapable loss of life. Here is how Wikipedia presents it: A runaway trolley is barreling down the railway tracks. Ahead, on the tracks, there are five people tied up
- [The Pathway to Driverless Cars and the Sacred Cow Problem](https://john-adams.co.uk/2017/04/29/the-pathway-to-driverless-cars-and-the-sacred-cow-problem/) - The Pathway to Driverless Cars and the Sacred Cow Problem Last Thursday (April 27, 2017) I was one of two speakers invited to lead the discussion at a National Infrastructure Commission roundtable on Connected and Autonomous Vehicles. The first speaker discussed the Readiness of the road network for connected and autonomous vehicles. My presentation was
- [Global Warming: a debate re-visited.](https://john-adams.co.uk/2014/06/25/global-warming-a-debate-re-visited/) - I have posted a near final draft of what became chapter 9 of my book Risk, published in 1995. The process of writing it transformed me from a firm believer in man-made global warming into a climate change agnostic a position to which I still adhere. In 1995 it seemed to me that most of
- [Driverless cars and the sacred cow problem](https://john-adams.co.uk/2016/08/17/driverless-cars-and-the-sacred-cow-problem/) - The promoters of driverless cars have demonstrated remarkable progress in their ability to program their vehicles to respond with extreme deference to pedestrians, cyclists, and cars with human drivers. Such programming confers sacred cow status on all road users not in self-driving vehicles. The developers of autonomous vehicles acknowledge the need for new road safety
- [Risk: mathematical and otherwise](https://john-adams.co.uk/2014/11/11/risk-mathematical-and-otherwise/) - Draft of essay commissioned for a special issue (June 2015) of the Mathematics Enthusiast entitled Risk: mathematical or otherwise. Still time to make changes so critical advice welcomed, especially from mathematicians. Abstract What role might mathematicians have to play in the management of risk? The idea of turning a risk, a possibility of loss or injury, into a calculated
- [Risk and Culture](https://john-adams.co.uk/2016/05/11/risk-and-culture/) - Risk, most dictionaries agree, involves exposure to the possibility of loss or injury. Perceptions of this possibility are embedded in culture and vary enormously over space and time. One frequently encounters the contention that it is important to distinguish between real, actual, objective risks and those that are merely perceived. But all risk is perceived. Risk
- [Environmental groups’ failure over HS2](https://john-adams.co.uk/2016/04/19/environmental-groups-failure-over-hs2/) - Letter in Telegraph, 17 April2016 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/04/17/letters-for-all-its-faults-the-eu-is-a-bold-project-that-still-d/ Environmental groups failure over HS2 SIR It is now very clear indeed that the hugely expensive HS2 project is fundamentally flawed; yet it continues to make progress towards delivery in spite of compelling evidence justifying its cancellation. Its passage has been assisted by two important factors that are as
- [The Driverless Car Revolution - Amazon Review](https://john-adams.co.uk/2015/07/25/the-driverless-car-revolution-amazon-review/) - Driverless Car Revolution: buy mobility not metal by Rutt Bridges Review for Amazon.co.uk **** 25 June, 2015 Highly recommended, but Mobility Not Metal is an impressively clear and comprehensive account of the potential of the driverless car revolution with a significant omission that we will come to shortly. It provides an intelligible description of both
- [Cycling and Safety: change must take root in people’s minds](https://john-adams.co.uk/2015/11/23/cycling-and-safety-change-must-take-root-in-peoples-minds/) - Last March I took part in a conference devoted to the promotion of cycling in Madrid. My presentation, in essay form, has now been published by World Transport: Policy and Practice. Herewith the abstract This essay is a response to an invitation to provide an overview of the current state of cycling in Britain,
- [Self driving cars and the child-ball problem](https://john-adams.co.uk/2015/07/06/self-driving-cars-and-the-child-ball-problem/) - if a ball were to roll onto a road, a human might expect that a child could follow. Artificial intelligence cannot yet provide that level of inferential thinking. This quotation from 2012 has already been overtaken by the extraordinary progress in the development of self-driving cars. But programming a self-driving car to anticipate a child following
- [Seat belts again](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/16/seat-belts-again-2/) - Yesterday when I showed Mayer Hillman the graphs in my last blog on this subject he complained that they displayed the statistics for all road user deaths and not the statistics for those affected by the seatbelt law, i.e. people in the front seats of cars. My excuse was that at the time I produced
- [A bargain](https://john-adams.co.uk/2014/07/02/a-bargain/) - From time to time I check on Amazon to see if anyone is buying my 1985 thriller Risk and Freedom - not many. But views about its value vary widely. The act of reading it, and transforming it into a "used" book, apparently increases its value enormously - I would like to think so.. 1 Comment Risk
- [Fun-loving singles](https://john-adams.co.uk/2014/04/04/fun-loving-singles/) - I recently discovered (thanks Jim) that my website had acquired a sideline in the form of a service for fun-loving singles wearing not very much, and keen to get in touch with others similarly attired. Although many of the postings might be said to have had a risk theme I have decided to focus, for
- [ISO 31000: an update](https://john-adams.co.uk/2014/03/30/iso-31000-an-update/) - For those new to ISO 31000 - Risk management - Principles and Guidelines published by the International Standards Organization - my profoundly negative view of it can be found in earlier postings . ISO 31000 has spawned, at the moment of writing, 2.9 million Google hits. I cannot say that none of them addresses the
- [A prize!!](https://john-adams.co.uk/2014/03/11/a-prize-2/) - This is a graphic record of the event. Jeremy Harrison, the head of the Institute of Risk Management, is laughing because I have just called him a sneaky bastard for inviting me to dinner without warning me that he had this in mind. And I am looking bemused because I was and still am. I
- [Been there. Got the T-shirt.](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/11/03/been-there-got-the-t-shirt/) - Yesterday was Risk Day in Birmingham's Town Hall with numerous events and speakers focused on the theme. My contribution was rewarded with a conference T-shirt. I suggested that since The Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents has its headquarters in Birmingham they might like to come over to take part in a discussion
- [Slides from my lecture on the public perception of risk](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/10/17/slides-from-my-lecture-on-the-public-perception-of-risk/) - Powerpoint presentation delivered at Imperial College on October 14th 2013.
- [Open letter to Tom Mullarkey, CEO of the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents.  ](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/02/11/open-letter-to-tom-mullarkey-ceo-of-the-royal-society-for-the-prevention-of-accidents/) - Dear Tom Following our meeting at a dinner at the RSA over six years ago I sent you an email (22 February 2007).You replied the same day saying When I have a moment, I would like to look into this in more detail and so I will follow up on the links you have kindly
- [Tom Vernon: Fat Man on a Bicycle](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/09/21/tom-vernon-fat-man-on-a-bicycle/) - My old friend Tom Vernon has died aged 74. I was honoured to be asked by his wife Sally to write his obituary for the Guardian. Here it is - http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/sep/18/tom-vernon
- [Pater knows best?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/06/11/pater-knows-best/) - Risk compensation the proposition that a persons perception of risk influences their risk-taking behaviour has now become conventional wisdom. No one now disputes that rock climbers with ropes will attempt manoeuvres that they would not attempt without them, or that trapeze artists will attempt manoeuvres with nets that they would not attempt without. The insurance
- [Change has to take root in people's minds](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/05/09/change-has-to-take-root-in-peoples-minds/) - The main headline in todays Daily Mail reads: £90 fine if you're texting at the wheel: Minister warns of safety crackdown US experience suggests that the crackdown is unlikely to achieve its desired effect. There the success of attempts to deal with the texting-while-driving problem by means of legislation has been the subject of a
- [The ever receding yet](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/05/09/the-ever-receding-yet/) - Historian Niall Ferguson has been reported as apologising for remarks in which he implied that John Maynard Keynes did not care about future generations because he was childless and gay leaving open the cause of Keynes indifference to the long run. This provoked a letter from me to todays Guardian. For non-Guardian readers here it
- [Now wash your hands](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/04/03/now-wash-your-hands/) - I recently visited an exhibition at the Barbican Centre in London entitled The Bride and the Bachelors: Duchamp with Cage, Cunningham, Rauschenberg and Johns More recently I was invited to speak to a conference entitled Risk culture for charities organised by the Institute for Risk Management. I began my conference presentation with an overview of
- [The Boston Marathon Bombs](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/04/17/the-boston-marathon-bombs/) - In the aftermath of the 2005 7th July bombings in London I wrote a piece entitled "7/7: What kills you matters - not numbers" I illustrated it with a diagram highlighting the remarkable lack of correlation between quantified measures of risk and common response. I identified two key variables that helped to explain this lack of
- [The BIGGEST LIE?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/03/24/the-biggest-lie/) - Last Thursday (21 March 2013) I attended a conference entitled Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics? Understanding casualty trends and the causes. It was sponsored by the Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety (PACTS). At the conference PACTS, the Department for Transport, and seven other organizations interested in promoting road safety launched a website called www.roadsafetyobservatory.com.
- [Third Open Letter to Executive Director of PACTS](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/10/06/third-open-letter-to-executive-director-of-pacts/) - To Robert Gifford Executive Director, The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety Dear Rob Thank you for sending me a paper claiming that seat belts have saved 57000 lives in the UK between 1983 and 2007. Is this the source of the 60000 claim posted on your website in 2008? I have discovered that the
- [Repeal the Seat Belt Law](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/02/12/repeal-the-seat-belt-law/) - Peter Bonisch has posted a comment on my RoSPA post (11 February) that merits an answer. He asks: would you advocate now removing the seatbelt requirement? The world has changed since the law was introduced including having been changed by it. Would it now be constructive to abolish the law in the knowledge that we
- [30 years in the jungle with the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents](https://john-adams.co.uk/2013/02/08/1061/) - 31 January marked the 30th anniversary of the implementation of Britains seat belt law. A television interviewer sent to quiz me about my opposition to the law said I reminded him of Hiroo Onoda, the Japanese soldier who spent 30 years in the jungle, fighting on, unaware that the war had been lost. The interview
- [Is ISO 31000 fit for purpose?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2012/08/01/is-iso-31000-fit-for-purpose/) - The debate Is ISO 31000 fit for purpose is the headline above a debate published in the June edition of Risk Management Professional for online version click here. The debate consisted of an abbreviated version of my blog ISO 31 000: Dr Rorschach meets Humpty Dumpty -­ and a rebuttal by Grant Purdy, one of
- [ISO 31000: the debate warms up](https://john-adams.co.uk/2012/05/07/iso-31000-the-debate-warms-up/) - Until recently most online discussion of ISO 31000 has been confined to a friendly Linkedin site for supporters: two quotations - I know the ISO 31000 and think it's almost perfect and I think the ISO 31000 definition of risk is great will convey the flavor of the critical discussion to be found on the
- [ISO 31000: Dr Rorschach meets Humpty Dumpty](https://john-adams.co.uk/2012/02/22/iso-31000/) - Much advice is proffered in cyberspace about how to manage risk: at the time of writing, tapping risk management into Google yielded 72 million hits. Do you sometimes (frequently?) on reading risk management guidance get to the end without a clue as to what the guide expects you, the risk manager, to actually do? I
- [Post hoc, trees are dangerous](https://john-adams.co.uk/2012/04/13/post-hoc-trees-are-dangerous-3/) - Last night (11/4/2012) I took part in an interesting Radio 3 discussion programme called Night Waves . The first contributor, Jonathan Haidt, was fascinating and Ive just ordered his new book The Righteous Mind. In the discussion he made a point that resonated with a problem that I have been wrestling with: discussing the relationship
- [Safety Fears Stop Bikes For Africa](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/10/21/safety-fears-stop-bikes-for-africa/) - This is one I have to share Found on an excellent website - http://www.copenhagenize.com/ 18 September 2009 "Here's an appropriate little 'wedgie' in the Fear of Cycling series. The Isle of Wight County Press Online [big name for a little paper :-)] reports that the Hampshire Constabulary has cut off supplying unclaimed stolen bikes to
- [Thinking Streets](https://john-adams.co.uk/2012/01/08/thinking-streets/) - A recent BBC radio 4 programme entitled Thinking Streets takes listeners on a refreshing tour of traffic management schemes that are elevating the status of pedestrians and cyclists relative to that of those in motor vehicles. The effect, as researcher/presenter, Angela Saini notes, is civilizing - while also reducing accidents. The programme features Ben Hamilton-Baillie, who
- [What is risk?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2012/01/13/what-is-risk/) - A new book from Cambridge University Press - Successful Science communication, (Bennett and Jennings eds.) - contains 26 chapters with helpful things to say to people concerned to communicate complex ideas to "the public". Plus a chapter by me entitled Not 100% sure? The public" understanding of risk; the reader is left to judge whether
- [Seat belts: another look at the data](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/11/05/seat-belts-another-look-at-the-data/) - I am grateful for a question posted today by Carsten Jasner in response to an earlier post of mine - Seat belts again. It has prompted another look at the data: Very interesting! But when the number of car occupant deaths increases while the number of all road user deaths decreases how can the number
- [Reducing zero risk](https://john-adams.co.uk/2011/07/08/reducing-zero-risk/) - Judith Hackitt head of the UK Health and Safety Executive, has recently been complaining about "the creeping culture of risk-aversion and fear of litigation and the jobsworths responsible for its promotion. The HSE appears to be losing the battle. Below I set out a piece that I was asked to write for my local tenants and
- [Road Safety: Myth Perpetuation](https://john-adams.co.uk/2011/06/27/road-safety-myth-perpetuation/) - On 30 June and 1 July Oxford Brookes University is holding a History of Road Safety Symposium (http://ah.brookes.ac.uk/conference/history_of_road_safety_symposium). History, as they say, is written by the victors. The concluding speaker is Rob Gifford, Executive Director of the Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety. The title of his presentation is "How parliament came to love seat
- [Priorities](https://john-adams.co.uk/2011/05/05/priorities/) - Ive just had an email from the chair of the Bournemouth Cycling Forum with an interesting complaint. Local police are targeting criminal cyclists who cycle without lights and cycle on the pavement. He questions whether, in these straitened times, these should be police priorities. Does anyone have any evidence that cycling without lights is dangerous?
- [Bicycle Bomb Update ](https://john-adams.co.uk/2011/05/05/bicycle-bomb-update/) - On 20 April 2011 I was invited to speak at a conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection at the Counter Terror Expo at the Olympia in London. The two vast Olympia exhibition halls were filled with exhibitors selling protection against terrorists: on display were lorry-bomb-resistant barriers and bollards, blast containment solutions, CCTV and covert surveillance systems,
- [Two methods of transport-safety myth building](https://john-adams.co.uk/2011/02/08/811/) - 1. Simple assertion. An example can be found in the current issue of The Economist by the journals Science and Technology correspondent writing under the name of Babbage (http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/02/road_safety). Babbage notes that the US fatality rate has been inching down over the past half century and then proceeds to explain why: it is the result
- [Managing transport risks: what works?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/12/02/managing-transport-risks-what-works/) - I have been invited to contribute a chapter to a book called Risk Theory Handbook to be published by Springer. Publication is scheduled for a year from now, so there is still time to make changes/corrections/improvements. Comments are welcomed. Here is the abstract. Abstract What does a transport safety regulator have in common with a
- [Drugs again](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/11/03/drugs-again/) - The Daily Mail today raised my hopes that it had had a Damascene conversion on the subject of drugs - and then dashed them. Below a letter to the editor that is certain not to get published. Dear Sir The Mail is often given credit for making the political weather. Certainly many politicians claim to
- [Risk and Freedom: the record of road safety regulation](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/09/14/risk-and-freedom-the-record-of-road-safety-regulation/) - Moving house I have discovered 30 copies of this book that I have put on Amazon for £5 - the inducement I need to go to the post office. Below an Amazon review that I quite like. Amazon Review (*****): Risk and Freedom is a book of historic significance. Published in 1985 and out of
- [The Nanny State (again)](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/09/14/the-nanny-state-again/) - In the news this morning is the story of 7 year old Isabelle allowed by her parents to walk 20 metres from her front door to catch the school bus. Nanny, in the form of Lincolnshire County Council, discovered this case of parental neglect and threatened the parents with a child protection order. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-11295617 and
- [The pursuit of resilience](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/08/31/the-pursuit-of-resilience/) - Resilience is a relative quality. There are no units by which it can be measured, but some have more of it than others. The ability to prevent bad things happening, and to mitigate their consequences and speed recovery when they do, is not equitably distributed. (full essay here)
- [The Cream Buns Act](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/07/02/the-cream-buns-act/) - Mrs Thatcher had a minister, Neil Hamilton, responsible for deregulation. Under Labour a similar agenda was pursued by the Better Regulation Task Force. That morphed into the Better Regulation Commission and then into the Better Regulation Advisory Council and, finally, into a whole Department of State in the form of BERR the Department for Business,
- [Should we ever take risks just to build resilience?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/06/09/should-we-ever-take-risks-just-to-build-resilience/) - This question was put ot me by an interesting website - Science and Religion Today . Not my usual stomping ground but, having reassured myself that they were defenders of Darwin, I decided they deserved an answer. Here it is: The pursuit of resilience involves risk management. The figure below describes the essence of this
- [Letter not published in New Scientist](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/06/09/not-published-in-new-scientist/) - In your special (21 May) report on denial you speak of climate deniers. This is a curious term (who denies the existence of climate?) that appears to be deployed to smear reputable scientists who react sceptically to the "hockey stick" peddled by Sir John Houghton and the IPCC. You (Jim Giles page 42) ride to
- [Not published in the Guardian](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/06/09/not-published-in-the-guardian/) - On 3 June Simon Jenkins published a devastating critique of the security industry's promotion and exploitation of paranoia to expand its domain. It prompted the letter below, sadly not published. So I submitted it to my blog where it was accepted with alacrity. Sir, Simon Jenkins (Not every adult is a paedophile, a terrorist or
- [Theologian quoted out of context?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/03/02/theologian-quoted-out-of-context/) - In my last blog I noted that Benny Peiser and Sir John Houghton were having an argument in The Observer about something regarding man-made global warming that Sir John might, or might not, have said. To recap, Peiser had quoted Sir John as saying Unless we announce disasters no one will listen. Sir John, in
- [Is God trying to tell us something?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/02/15/is-god-trying-to-tell-us-something/) - Sir John Houghton thinks so. Former director of the Met Office, former chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, and former co-chair of the International Commission on Climate Change he is an influential voice in the global warming debate. He is currently demanding, in a letter to the Observer, an apology from Benny Peiser,
- [ Moral hazard:  bonuses, seat belts and condoms](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/10/28/moral-hazard-bonuses-seat-belts-and-condoms/) - (If experiencing problems with IE7, please try Firefox, Opera or Safari) "Moral hazard is a term that dates back to the 1600s. Until recent times its use has been mostly confined to the insurance industry to refer to behaviour that responds to changes in perceived risk. The industry has noticed that people who have contents
- [Bicycle bombs and the fourth policeman: the Freedom of Information Act](https://john-adams.co.uk/2010/01/27/bicycle-bombs-and-the-fourth-policeman-the-freedom-of-information-act/) - Faithful followers of this website may recollect an earlier blog, Bicycle bombs: a further enquiry and a new theory, in which I called attention to the fact that, despite the absence of evidence that anyone-anywhere-ever had been killed by a pipe bomb disguised as a bicycle, Westminster police were impounding bicycles parked near Whitehall and Parliament
- [Final open letter to Executive Director of PACTS](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/10/16/final-open-letter-to-executive-director-of-pacts/) - (If experiencing problems with IE7, please try Firefox, Opera or Safari) To Robert Gifford Executive Director, The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety Dear Rob Failing a response, I propose to draw this one-sided correspondence to a close. I believe that I have established: a. that the claim that seat belts have saved 60000 lives
- [Second open letter to Executive Director of PACTS](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/30/second-open-letter-to-executive-director-of-pacts/) - To Robert Gifford Executive Director, The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety Dear Rob Im sorry but I must persist. The power and endurance of the myth that PACTS and RoSPA have built around the seat belt law takes a lot of deconstructing. So long as belief in the efficacy of the law persists it
- [Open letter to Executive Director of PACTS](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/23/open-letter-to-executive-director-of-pacts/) - To Robert Gifford Executive Director, The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety Dear Rob This claim made over a year ago is still on the PACTS website: On the 31st January 2008, the 25th anniversary of the law change which made front seatbelt wearing compulsory was celebrated. PACTS itself was set up by Barry Sheerman
- [Seat belts – from the archive](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/22/seat-belts-–-from-the-archive/) - Now in retirement and culling my files in the process of downsizing I came upon the following letter from the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents dated 7 July 1981 shortly before Parliament was to vote on a seat belt law, and encouraging Parliament to vote for the law: TO ALL MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT
- [Drugs prohibition](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/11/drugs-prohibition/) - Simon Jenkins wrote an exceptionally powerful piece in the Guardian on 4 September entitled The war on drugs is immoral idiocy. His title conveys the essence. He went beyond proposals to decriminalize consumption, to advocate decriminalizing production as well to be replaced by licensing, regulation and taxation. The Guardian appears to be suffering a failure
- [Yet more myth inflation](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/08/yet-more-myth-inflation/) - Last night at 8pm BBC Radio 4 presented a programme entitled "Where did it all go right?" celebrating the success of Britain's seat belt law. It will be available on the Radio 4 Listen Again facility for another 6 days. It can be found at http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00mg2v6#synopsis (or if you are too late for the listen again
- [Myth Inflation](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/01/31/myth-inflation/) - Anniversaries are convenient occasions on which to reinforce myths. Twenty five years ago, 31 January 1983, it became compulsory for occupants of the front seats of cars in the UK to wear seat belts. Today Britains Department for Transport has posted a press release announcing that in the 25 years since the seat belt law
- [Seat belts – myth inflation update](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/03/seat-belts-–-myth-inflation-update/) - The myth of the efficacy of seat belts laws has become deeply embedded. Their success is routinely invoked in all sorts of unrelated arguments: e.g. Opposing wind farms is as 'socially unacceptable' as not wearing a seatbelt says the climate change minister. Every so often it is given a boost by an outrageous claim that
- [Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/06/23/quis-custodiet-ipsos-custodes/) - I have just returned from a fascinating conference at MIT on Security and Human Behaviour and am now preparing for the EU Green Week conference in Brussels. This post explores an issue common to both conferences: paranoia. The security of central interest to the MIT conference was that of people using the Internet. The titles
- [Swine flu](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/05/05/swine-flu/) - Letter NOT published in the Guardian. Submitted 30 April. My two favorite commentators on the subject of risk have fallen out. Simon Jenkins (29 April) predicts that swine flu will end up with bird flu and Sars in the category of over-hyped scare that never happened. Ben Goldacre (30 April) says that if Simon turns
- [Risco](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/03/18/risco/) - Risk Now available as Risco in Portuguese. See Deus é Brasileiro? for new preface - in English.
- [The World Under Assault: Can Science Beat Terrorism?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/03/06/the-world-under-assault-can-science-beat-terrorism/) - The above title advertises a Cambridge Science Festival event, (9 March 2009) in which I have been invited to participate. My answer to the question in the title, will be spelt out in my first PowerPoint slide: No: because paranoia cannot be cured by CCTV, or DNA databases, or ID cards, or CRB checks, or
- [Ban horse riding, or …](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/02/11/ban-horse-riding-or-…/) - Below is a letter to the Guardian, published today (11 February 2009) in reduced form. Jacqui Smith is keen that the Governments classification of drugs should send clear messages to would-be users. One message conveyed by her attack on David Nutt (Drugs adviser says sorry over ecstasy article, 10 February) is that she does not care
- [John Stuart Mill and the cream-buns theory of liberty](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/09/06/john-stuart-mill-and-the-cream-bun-theory-of-liberty/) - Britain's Liberal Democrat History Group provoked a mid-summer controversy with its search for the greatest British Liberal of all time. Its short list, to be voted on at the party's annual conference in September, consisted of William Ewart Gladstone, David Lloyd George, John Stuart Mill and John Maynard Keynes. The front runner for most of
- [Risk Management: the Economics and Morality of Safety Revisited](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/02/07/risk-management-the-economics-and-morality-of-safety-revisited/) - Abstract The introduction to the proceedings of the Royal Academy of Engineering 2006 seminar on The Economics and Morality of Safety concluded with a list of issues that were worthy of further exploration. I have reduced them to the following questions: ¢ Why do moral arguments about ˜rights persist unresolved? ¢ Why can risk managers
- [The world’s biggest mega transport project](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/02/09/the-world’s-biggest-mega-transport-project/) - In December 2007 I delivered a Working Paper entitled Managing risk in a hypermobile world to the OMEGA Project - a project dedicated to thinking about Mega Projects in Transport and Development. I began thus: Transport projects facilitate new connections between trip origins and destinations. In so doing they disturb previous patterns of connection, often
- [Vashti revisited](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/02/03/vashti-revisited/) - I began my inaugural blog on this website On becoming Vashti as follows: My nomination for the most prescient work of science fiction is The Machine Stops by E.M. Forster. A recent comment on this posting by a former student, June Gibbons, has prompted a further re-reading of The Machine Stops. With each re-reading Forster
- [Seat Belts: the debate goes on, and on](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/11/04/seat-belts-the-debate-goes-on-and-on/) - Letter accepted for publication in Significance, December 2008. This is a much abbreviated version of the letter submitted. Apologies for my delayed reply to the Controversy piece by Richard Allsop, et al (Significance, June 2008) - challenging my piece Britains seatbelt law should be repealed (Significance June 2007). The myth that seat belt laws save lives
- [Bicycle bombs: a further enquiry and a new theory](https://john-adams.co.uk/2009/01/16/bicycle-bombs-a-further-enquiry-and-a-new-theory/) - Has anyone, anywhere, ever, been killed by a pipe bomb disguised as a bicycle? I have been pursuing this question since last June with the help of the Internet and the BBCs Today Programme and World Service. So far the answer appears to be not yet; but it remains in the mind of the Westminster
- [Proving a negative and the onus of proof](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/11/05/proving-a-negative-and-the-onus-of-proof/) - Two assertions that I cannot prove: · No one, anywhere, ever, has been killed by a bicycle bomb. · No life, anywhere, ever, has been saved by the life jacket under their seat. Anywhere is a large place, and ever is a long time. The most one can do is broadcast an appeal for disproving
- [Deus é Brasileiro?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/12/31/deus-e-brasileiro/) - Preface for Risco the Brazilian translation of Risk - to be published in Brazil in March 2009. I first encountered the idea that God might be a Brazilian forty years ago. I was a visiting student at the University of São Paulo. On a trip from São Paulo to Santos I was the passenger of
- [Two old men](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/12/29/two-old-men/) - John Adams and (even older positively venerable) Mayer Hillman are looking for a younger enthusiast to carry on a research project that Mayer and Anne Whalley began at the Policy Studies Institute. In 1971, they conducted a survey of English childrens independent mobility how they got to school, visited friends and so on, whether they
- [Bicycle bombs: a threat to Westminster? ](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/07/28/bicycle-bombs-a-threat-to-westminster/) - On 25 June I participated in a debate held by the Royal Institute of British Architects This house believes we should fortify our cities. Piers Gough and I opposed the motion. In the course of the debate the proposers, Lorraine Gamman and Adam Thorpe, raised the threat of bicycle bombs. After the debate they produced
- [Moral Hazard ](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/04/25/moral-hazard/) - Moral hazard is a term used in the insurance industry to refer to the way in which behaviour alters when people acquire insurance. People with house contents insurance are less careful about locking up. Such behaviour in the eyes of insurers is immoral. The term stigmatizes human nature. We all adjust our behaviour in response
- [Three days national mourning for 12 days death on the road?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/08/21/three-days-national-mourning-for-12-days-death-on-the-road/) - Spain's Prime Minister declared a three period of mourning to mark the Madrid plane crash of 20 August. This reaction to the crash highlights yet again the intractable problem of finding a metric that everyone can agree upon for measuring risk. The crash was what is sometimes referred to as a low-probability high-impact event. High
- [Cycle helmets and the importance of culture](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/08/15/cycle-helmets-and-the-importance-of-culture/) - On 11 August the Guardian published an article entitled "Do cyclists really need helmets?" It noted the difference in cycling culture between continental northern Europe and elsewhere. I submitted a letter on the subject that they declined to publish. So I have submitted it to my blog where I have a 100% success rate. Do
- [More on bicycle bombs](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/08/04/more-on-bicycle-bombs/) - My bicycle bombs story (see previous blog and comments - https://john-adams.co.uk/?p=122 ) was also aired on the BBC Today Programme and the BBC World Service on 30 July. I still haven't received any convincingly documented case of a bicycle bomb, in the form of the frame packed with explosives, killing anyone anywhere in the world.
- [The Achilles heel of eco-towns](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/04/16/the-achilles-heel-of-eco-towns/) - Dear Sir Simon Jenkins (4 April 2008) exposes the Achilles heel of all the proposed eco-towns: transport. But he is a trifle hard on the motives of the original proponents of the garden cities and new towns. Relieving the squalid, densely packed, inner city slums by providing houses in new settlements, with gardens, in which
- [Maths and the City](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/06/14/math-and-the-city/) - Published in The GuardianThursday June 12, 2008 Ian Stewart asserts that his university's mathematics students "earn more money, on average, than those studying any other degree subject" and that "their ability to handle technical ideas is highly prized, and rewarded" (Letters, June 7). His assumption, shared by most other contributors to the current debate about
- [On Liberty](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/06/02/on-liberty/) - The tobacco industry and me This posting has been paid for by the tobacco industry. It is an article commissioned by Risk of Freedom Briefing, a publication edited by the philosopher Roger Scruton and sponsored by JT International (Japan Tobacco). Sadly, before it could be published, JT International withdrew their sponsorship and the publication ceased
- [Are we doomed to live in an oppressive safety culture?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/05/09/are-we-doomed-to-live-in-an-oppressive-safety-culture/) - Martin Parkinson raises an interesting question (comment on previous post): what should be the reaction to an accident that, a priori, was an extremely low probability event? He suggests that any attempt to reverse the counterproductive aspects of ˜health and safety culture is doomed to failure. After an accident he argues that most people will
- [Where and when is shared space safe?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/05/04/where-and-when-is-shared-space-safe/) - Presentation for PRIAN Public Realm Course, Bedford, 28 April 2008. Traditional highway engineering assumes that safety requires the spatial segregation of pedestrians, cyclists and motorized vehicles or, where this is not possible, rigorously enforced rules, signs and signals dictating temporal segregation. Road users, according to the established paradigm, are irresponsible, stupid, selfish automatons whose safety
- [Making God laugh - part 3](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/04/08/making-god-laugh-part-3/) - God, I suspect, finds Photoshoppers especially amusing. Grudging thanks to Peter Holtham for spoiling my tutorial. See http://www.cargolaw.com/2005nightmare_catch-day.html for the answers to the questions posed at the end of my last post.
- [Making God laugh (again): a risk management tutorial](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/04/06/making-god-laugh-again-a-risk-management-tutorial/) - The words risk and management sit uncomfortably alongside each other. Many people believe that it is possible to distinguish real, actual or objective risk from perceived risk. But all risk is perceived. It is a word that refers to the future, a future that exists only in our imaginations. Those who call themselves risk managers
- [Seat belts – blood on my hands?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/03/05/seat-belts-–-blood-on-my-hands/) - I have just found an anonymous, one sentence comment on my blog. It reads: Your campaign against seat belt wearing has already borne fruit: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4411639a6479.html . The link takes you to an interesting story from New Zealand with the headline Seatbelt subterfuge kills driver. The driver who was killed, according to the story, was opposed
- [Should you believe in man-made Global Warming?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/02/20/should-you-believe-in-global-warming/) - This question is posed by Philip Stott in two recent postings on his blog entitled "Pascal's Wager And ˜Global Warming'" and "An Obstinate Rationality" .Stott's blog is worth adding to your "favourites" and visiting frequently. He used to give an annual lecture to my students and invariably was awarded top marks in the student assessments
- [Seat belts - again](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/02/12/seat-belts-again/) - On the first of February 2008 I sent an email to the Department of Transport at - road.safety@dft.gsi.gov.uk. It said: In your press release of 31 January you state: "Seatbelts have prevented an estimated 60,000 deaths and 670,000 serious injuries since 31 January 1983 when seatbelts were made mandatory for drivers and front seat passengers."
- [Probably the best disclaimer in the world](https://john-adams.co.uk/2008/01/07/probably-the-best-disclaimer-in-the-world/) - Most risk assessments, warning notices and disclaimers are the legal equivalent of juju charms to ward off lawyers and probably as effective as the kind that believers wear around their necks. This disclaimer for Nelson Rocks Preserve in West Virginia was sent to me by Paul Winston, editorial director of Business Insurance . It is
- [Dangerous trees?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/12/19/dangerous-trees-2/) - Arboricultural Journal 2007, Vol. 30, pp. 95103 This is the published version of a paper prepared for a conference on The Future of Tree Risk Management, held in London on 15 September 2006. Abstract Britain, in the view of former Prime Minister Blair, is in danger of having a wholly disproportionate attitude to the risks
- [The cost of inaction: why cost-benefit analysis seldom settles arguments](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/12/08/the-cost-of-inaction-why-cost-benefit-analysis-seldom-settles-arguments/) - Draft for WHO Workshop, Rome, 13-14 December 2007. The cost of inaction: economic valuation in environment and health. Contemplation of the costs of inaction usually provokes questions about the benefits of inaction, which leads to cost-benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis, as a method for settling arguments about action or inaction is enormously seductive. You simply add
- [The demise of the free-range child](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/12/07/the-demise-of-the-free-range-child/) - In 1971 Mayer Hillman conducted a survey of how English children got about: at what age were they allowed to play in the street, ride a bike, get to school on their own, visit friends and get about the neighbourhood? In 1990 Mayer persuaded me to join him in re-surveying the same schools he had
- [Risk compensation deniers](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/11/17/risk-compensation-deniers/) - In October 2007 the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety published a Status Report (PDF: 1MB) complaining about my article "Britains Seat Belt Law should be Repealed" (PDF: 0.2MB) (published as "Seat Belt Laws Repeal them?" in the June 2007 issue of the statistical journal Significance). It went on to denounce all those who invoke the
- [Risk and Freedom - product recall and replacement](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/11/12/risk-and-freedom-product-recall-and-replacement/) - Many thanks to Jim Tubman who noticed that the previously posted version of the book was missing page 89. Further thanks to Jim for inserting it, and adding further bookmarking features. The new, improved product is now online at https://john-adams.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/risk%20and%20freedom.pdf.
- ["Risk and Freedom" now free online](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/10/27/risk-and-freedom-now-free-online/) - Now available as a free online download Amazon Review (*****): Risk and Freedom is a book of historic significance. Published in 1985 and out of print for many years it continues to have a profound influence on road safety policy. It provides the first coherent application of the concept of risk compensation to the management
- [Shared Space - would it work in Los Angeles?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/09/08/shared-space-would-it-work-in-los-angeles/) - (Commissioned, but not used - and worse not paid for - by The Los Angeles Times. So published here free of charge on the slightly-smaller-circulation Adams' Blog) There is a growing enthusiasm amongst European transport planners for "shared space". It is an intriguing idea pioneered by Hans Monderman, a highway engineer in Friesland. He removed
- [Never mind the width, feel the quality](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/09/07/never-mind-the-width-feel-the-quality/) - (Published in abbreviated form in The Times Higher on 24 August 2007, as Tide of paranoia swells safety fears needlessly) We are in danger of having a wholly disproportionate attitude to the risks we should expect to run as a normal part of life. So said the Prime Minister in May 2005. At the highest
- [“Ensure you can see where you are putting your feet before walking”: Governance and Compliance](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/03/19/“ensure-you-can-see-where-you-are-putting-your-feet-before-walking”-governance-and-compliance/) - Keynote address to OpRisk Europe Conference, 21 March, London: All risk is subjective. Risk is a word that refers to the future, and that exists only in the imagination. Risk management involves speculating about this future, about things that could go wrong, and about ways of preventing them. In recent years, in the public sector
- [On becoming Vashti: reflections of a novice blogger](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/08/21/on-becoming-vashti-reflections-of-a-novice-blogger/) - My nomination for the most prescient work of science fiction is The Machine Stops by E.M. Forster. Writing in 1909, not only did he anticipate television, the Internet, video conferencing, email, Amazon, Google and Globalization but, more significantly, the impact that they would have on our lives. It is a short story about a world
- [Risk and Freedom: the record of road safety regulation: by yours truly](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/02/22/risk-and-freedom-the-record-of-road-safety-regulation-by-yours-truly/) - Now on sale. Ive discovered a box with 20 copies, which I am offering through Amazon.co.uk at the original 1985 price of £10. I reproduce the sole Amazon review (*****) below. Risk and Freedom is a book of historic significance. Published in 1985 and out of print for many years it continues to have a
- [Road pricing not the answer](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/02/14/road-pricing-not-the-answer/) - Letter to the Guardian published 14 February, 2007 Published version at http://www.guardian.co.uk/letters/story/0,,2012301,00.html Sir When Labour came to power 10 years ago John Prescott proclaimed I will have failed if in five years time there are not many more people using public transport and far fewer journeys by car. Its a tall order but I urge
- [Complexity & Uncertainty in a Risk Averse Society ](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/01/18/complexity-uncertainty-in-a-risk-averse-society/) - Summary of presentation to Omega Centre Conference on Planning and decision-making amidst complexity, risk and uncertainty, Royal Institute of British Architects, London, 22 January 2007. The Omega Centre project aims to contribute to the advancement of the art and science of planning, appraising and evaluating the impacts of mega land-based transport projects in major urban
- [Seat belt legislation and the Isles Report](https://john-adams.co.uk/2007/01/04/seat-belt-legislation-and-the-isles-report/) - In most countries arguments about seat belt legislation are dead. But it remains a live issue in the United States where such laws are a matter for individual states. As a consequence there exists in the United States a variety of laws and levels of enforcement, and considerable debate about their effectiveness and moral legitimacy.
- [Britain's seat belt law should be repealed](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/12/16/britains-seat-belt-law-should-be-repealed/) - The BBCs Today Programme is running a competition called Christmas Repeal in which listeners are invited to nominate an existing law that should be repealed. I nominate Britains seat belt law. [Update 23 December. Despite my high hopes and much encouragement, my Immodest Proposal did not succeed. It did not pass through the Today Programmes
- [When are we getting a new Mental Health Act?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/10/28/when-are-we-getting-a-new-mental-health-act/) - This question is posed in the title of a symposium to which I have been invited to contribute (organised by Cygnet Health Care London, 30 November 2006). It is also highly relevant to a staff seminar I have been invited to give at Grendon Prison on 17 November. A succinct summary of the contentious history
- [Prudence goes off-shore](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/10/29/prudence-goes-off-shore/) - Following an email encounter with someone involved with risk management in the Norwegian off-shore oil and gas industry, I have put on my website a paper, Prudence and the Gambler, published in 1991 by Shell World a Shell Oil company publication. My article was followed, in the same issue, by a First Reaction from Koos
- [HSE sick and tired - and likely to remain so](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/10/09/hse-sick-and-tired-and-likely-to-remain-so/) - On 22 August 2006 Bill Callaghan, Chair of Britains Health and Safety Commission (HSC overseer of the HSE, the Health and Safety Executive) issued a press release entitled: Get a life, says HSC. He announced: Im sick and tired of hearing that ˜health and safety is stopping people doing worthwhile and enjoyable things when at
- [A hard shoulder to cry on](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/09/14/a-hard-shoulder-to-cry-on/) - On 12 September 2006 the Department for Transport initiated an experiment on the M42 in which, in periods of congestion, drivers would be allowed to use the hard shoulder. Media coverage of the experiment focused on safety problems: in the event of breakdowns or accidents emergency services would take longer to get to the scene.
- [Dangerous Trees?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/09/11/dangerous-trees/) - Paper for conference on The Future of Tree Risk Management London, 15 September 2006. The average annual number of tree-related deaths between 1998 and 2003 (the most recent statistics available) was six, or one in 10 million averaged over the national population. The Health and Safety Executive considers that an individual risk of death of
- [Three framing devices for managing risk](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/09/02/three-framing-devices-for-managing-risk/) - Summary of presentation for CRIMS (Canadian Risk and Insurance Management Society) conference, Calgary, 17-20 September 2006. It is important to be clear about the type of risk you are dealing with. Directly perceptible risks are dealt with instinctively and intuitively. Virtual risks are culturally constructed when the science is inconclusive people are liberated to argue
- [Death on the roads - Article lacks logic](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/08/06/be-careful-or-lucky/) - Letter to the editor of the British Medical Journal, 26 June, 2006, commenting on Unsafe driving behaviour and four wheel drive vehicles: observational study, by Lesley Walker, Jonathan Williams and Konrad Jamrozik. EDITOR Walker et al show convincingly that drivers and other occupants of heavy four wheel drive vehicles are safer in crashes than those
- [Planet saved?](https://john-adams.co.uk/2006/08/31/planet-saved/) - Review for The Times Higher published 1 September 2006 Capitalism as if the World Matters By Jonathan Porritt, Earthscan Publications Ltd, 336pp, Hardcover £18.99 ISBN: 1844071928 Published 1 November 2005 Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble By Lester Brown, W W Norton & Co Ltd, 352pp, Paperback £10.99

## Pages

- [Essays](https://john-adams.co.uk/papers-reports/) - All downloads are in PDF format, unless otherwise stated. DATE TITLE 2016 Driverless cars and the sacred cow problem, abridged version published in City Metic, 5 September 2016 2016 Risk and Culture, published (2016) as chapter 7 in Routledge Handbook of Risk Studies 2015 Cycling and Safety: change must take root in people's minds, World
- [About](https://john-adams.co.uk/about/) - Emeritus Professor of Geography at University College London. I was a member of the original Board of Directors of Friends of the Earth in the early 1970s and have been involved in debates about environmental issues ever since. I am intrigued by the persistence of attitudes to risks. For the past 30 years, the same
- [Contact](https://john-adams.co.uk/contact/) - John Adams Emeritus Professor University College London Geography Department Gower Street London WC1E 6BT www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~jadams john.adams@ucl.ac.uk
- [Presentations](https://john-adams.co.uk/presentations/) - All downloads are in PDF format, unless otherwise stated. 2017 The Pathway to Driverless Cars and the Sacred Cow Problem: some behavioural challenges to think about. Presentation for National Infrastructure Commission Roundtable on connected and autonomous vehicles, London, 27 April. 2016 Driverless cars and the sacred cow problem. Cultural Theory of Risk and Regulatory Governance Workshop, Tilburg,
- [Books](https://john-adams.co.uk/books/) - DATE TITLE BUY / DOWNLOAD 2013 Cities at Risk: Living with Perils in the 21st Century (Joffe, Rossetto and Adams eds.) - £90.00!!! You can also download a draft of my chapter - Risk Compensation Buy on Amazon 1995 Risk UCL Press Download book as PDF (1.5MB) View reviews Up dated preface - March 2009 [PDF].
- [Letters & Reviews](https://john-adams.co.uk/letters-reviews/) - All downloads are in PDF format, unless otherwise stated. DATE TITLE 2007 John Stuart Mill and the cream-bun theory of liberty Letter published in The Guardian, 11 August. 2005 In Favour of Speed Cameras But Letter to editor of Local Transport Today, 6 Janurary 2003 How do we rate our chances? Reveiw of Reckoning with

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