I have posted a near final draft of what became chapter 9 of my book Risk, published in 1995. The process of writing it transformed me from a firm believer in man-made global warming into a climate change agnostic a position to which I still adhere. In 1995 it seemed to me that most of the explanations being offered for what was happening to the climate were extraordinarily crude and simplistic relative to the complexity of the system that the participants in the debate purported to understand. I choose to call myself an “agnostic” rather than a “sceptic” because this appears to me to still be the case. The sceptics cast doubt on the “fact” of anthropogenic warming – I simply don’t know.
However my sympathies have shifted in favour of the sceptics in response to the disgraceful treatment of Professor Lennart Bengtsson after he recently proclaimed his scepticism and joined the Global Warming Policy Foundation. It is difficult to imagine a scientist more honoured and qualified to comment on this issue. The vicious personal response to his expressions of scepticism to me speaks volumes for their lack of confidence in the strength of their case.
I intend soon to post a review of these almost 20 year old thoughts – after deciding which ones I still agree with. But meanwhile …